Wie lässt sich angesichts von zunehmenden extremereignissen noch planen? (essay)

Claudia Chreptun, Fabian Härtl, Thomas Knoke, Carola Paul

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelBegutachtung

Abstract

The increase in the number and the intensity of extreme events is a serious challenge for sustainable forestry. In order to be able to carry out forest planning oriented to the me-dium-and long-term under these uncertain conditions, the tried and tested forest planning instruments have to be sup-plemented with new methods. Computer-based approaches like simulation, optimization under uncertainty and scenario analyses comparing e.g. different climate change projections may offer suitable tools. The findings from such models do not replace the expert planning on-site, but may support in-formed and transparent decisions by complementing tradi-tional methods of forest planning. The results of recent research show for example that strategies, such as a careful reduction of the growing stock and the diversification of tree species as well as stretching the harvest schedule over times, may help to deal with an increased risk. Compromise solu-tions for several possible future scenarios are also preferred, as they reduce the worst-case losses. Within such a balanced strategy, it might still be possible to include risky but economically attractive tree species in the enterprise’s portfolio such as spruce.

Titel in ÜbersetzungHow can we still plan in view of the increasing number of extreme events? (essay)
OriginalspracheDeutsch
Seiten (von - bis)184-188
Seitenumfang5
FachzeitschriftSchweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen
Jahrgang171
Ausgabenummer4
DOIs
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2020

Schlagwörter

  • Extreme events
  • Forest planning
  • Portfolio theory
  • Risk
  • Robust optimization
  • Uncertainty

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