TY - JOUR
T1 - “Why villagers stay put – A structural equation model on staying intentions”
AU - Dufhues, Thomas
AU - Möllers, Judith
AU - Traikova, Diana
AU - Buchenrieder, Gertrud
AU - Runschke, David
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020
PY - 2021/1
Y1 - 2021/1
N2 - While the rural exodus dominates public and scientific debates, considerably less attention has been given to studying why the overwhelming majority of people worldwide remain immobile. As a consequence of this, the reasons why people stay, especially in economically weaker rural areas, are still not fully understood. This paper aims to contribute to closing this gap by addressing the question of why rural people stay put despite inter-regional welfare. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) we model staying intentions of villagers in rural Kazakhstan, where many people leave toward urban areas. Our model focuses on staying behaviour, but explicitly includes the leave option as the alternative to staying, as well as both staying and leaving barriers. We apply a cutting edge partial least square structural equation model. Our study reveals the existence of an interaction between staying and leaving barriers. Thus, any policies reducing rural-urban migration barriers have a multiplier effect as people view staying as comparatively more difficult when leaving becomes easier. We further show that existing positive narratives of urban life weaken staying intentions. However, the strongest factor slowing rural exodus is not related to the rural economy, but to the future prossspects of children, including access to high-quality educational institutions in close proximity.
AB - While the rural exodus dominates public and scientific debates, considerably less attention has been given to studying why the overwhelming majority of people worldwide remain immobile. As a consequence of this, the reasons why people stay, especially in economically weaker rural areas, are still not fully understood. This paper aims to contribute to closing this gap by addressing the question of why rural people stay put despite inter-regional welfare. Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) we model staying intentions of villagers in rural Kazakhstan, where many people leave toward urban areas. Our model focuses on staying behaviour, but explicitly includes the leave option as the alternative to staying, as well as both staying and leaving barriers. We apply a cutting edge partial least square structural equation model. Our study reveals the existence of an interaction between staying and leaving barriers. Thus, any policies reducing rural-urban migration barriers have a multiplier effect as people view staying as comparatively more difficult when leaving becomes easier. We further show that existing positive narratives of urban life weaken staying intentions. However, the strongest factor slowing rural exodus is not related to the rural economy, but to the future prossspects of children, including access to high-quality educational institutions in close proximity.
KW - Central Asia
KW - Kazakhstan
KW - Migration
KW - Non-migration
KW - Partial least square modelling
KW - Theory of Planned behaviour
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85096107326&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.10.054
DO - 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2020.10.054
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85096107326
SN - 0743-0167
VL - 81
SP - 345
EP - 357
JO - Journal of Rural Studies
JF - Journal of Rural Studies
ER -