Urban Growth Modelling for a City Built from Scratch-Case Study of the New Indonesian Capital

Across the world, processes of capital relocations can be witnessed even in recent history. However, the relocation of the Indonesian capital to East Kalimantan clearly sets itself apart: due to massive environmental impacts, driven by sea level rise and simultaneous subsidence of urban areas, the current capital Jakarta is exposed to increasingly challenging issues. Thus, the capital’s relocation to the more secure environments of the island of Borneo is of particular importance for the consideration of future climate-induced migration processes and can additionally be considered a model in various respects. This work is primarily concerned with the question of the effects on the local environment that a large-scale project of this kind can have on land cover. We designed population development scenarios based on past examples of capital city relocations, which we subsequently fed into an urban growth model with additional nature conservation scenarios. The FUTURES tool from Grass GIS enabled the estimation of urbanisation and its impact on local land resources based on these different scenarios. This gives us information about land changes and related impacts on the environment and its natural resources. It is clearly shown that strict nature conservation laws are of great importance to minimise land grabbing of natural areas even in the case of a rapid rise in population, and that especially in the event of an explosive increase in the number of inhabitants, a compact building style will be important in order not to have to take up surrounding land outside of the designated area. The many already human-altered sites offer plenty of space for the sustainable development of Ibu Kota Negara. Nevertheless, the strategies from this chapter are essential if the new capital city wants to be truly innovative and not only protect but also promote ecologically valuable areas. The results of this work should therefore serve as a decision-making support for responsible planners and can, in addition, be used as a basis for planning for future resettlement projects, especially in view of climate-induced migration and urbanisation processes.