The Influence of Weather on Fatal Accidents in Austrian Mountains

Projections of warmer global temperatures in fast-approaching time horizons warrant planning strategies for reducing impacts on human morbidity and mortality. This study sought to determine whether increases in temperature and other changes in weather indices had an impact on rates of fatal accidents occurring in the popular mountainous regions of Austria, with the purpose of improving prevention and accident-mitigation strategies in the mountains. The study was based on the merging of 3285 fatal outdoor accidents reported by the Austrian Alpine Safety Board for the period 2006 to 2018 with daily meteorological data from 43 nearby climate stations during the same period. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model the odds of one or more fatal accidents per station and day with weather indices as predictors, controlling for weekend effects bringing more visitors to the mountains. Separate prediction models were performed for summer and winter activities, as well as for specific disciplines. Even after adjustment for concomitant effects impacting mountain fatal accidents, the daily weather indices of temperature, relative humidity, global radiation, cloudi-ness, snow cover and precipitation were statistically significantly associated with fatal-accident risk. In particular, a 18 increase in temperature was associated with a 13% increase in odds of a mountain-biking accident in the summer and an 8% increase in odds of a mountain suicide in the winter. An increase in global radiation by 1 kW h m²² was associated with an 11% and 28% increase in fatal-accident odds for mountaineering in the summer and touring in the winter, respectively.