Testing the credibility of crypto influencers: An event study on Bitcoin

Against widespread investment advice, crypto-asset retail investors try to yield superior investment returns by ‘crypto-asset picking’ or market timing. One group fueling such aspirations is that of crypto influencers on YouTube conducting crypto market analyses. We are the first to test the value of such analyses for retail investors, by deriving short-term Bitcoin price analyses from a sample of seven influencers with each more than 300,000 subscribers over a one-year time frame. Both, viewer-gathered data from overall 4607 analyzed videos as well as software-based sentiment data do not suggest that those influencers are correct in their market analyses. We conclude by strongly advising the large audience of such YouTube crypto influencers to refrain from adapting any investment advice.