Sylviculture proche de la nature et multifonc tionnelle en période de changement climatique un cas d'étude

The available assessments of the impacts of the expected climate change on the dynamics of Swiss forests are prone to considerable uncertainties and are mostly of qualitative nature; recommendations on silvicultural measures are therefore typically quite generic. Using a quantitative method, we analyzed whether today's best-practice silviculture remains valid under changing climatic conditions. Based on a stratification of the data from the National Forest Inventory NFI3, 71 typical Swiss forest stands were identified. Thereof, we chose six illustrative examples and examined how timber production, protective function and tree diversity evolve under climate change, using the ForClim forest model. In cooperation with silviculture experts, we elaborated specific management schemes for the upcoming 100 to 150 years considering different silvicultural objectives. In order to reproduce these in detail, ForClim was extended, and thereby an important basis for plausible, practice-oriented modelling was laid. The results show a satisfying behaviour of the newly introduced management techniques "mountain plentering" and "Z-tree management". In the latter, the modelling of the selection of Z-trees can potentially be improved. In the six stand types investigated here, no abrupt changes in forest dynamics became apparent under the considered climate change scenarios. The results indicate that today's silviculture may remain suitable in the coming decades.