Risk in historical perspective: Concepts, contexts, and conjunctions

Although the etymological roots of the term risk can be traced back as far as the late Middle Ages, the modern concept of risk appeared only gradually, with the transition from traditional to modern society. The modern understanding of risk presupposes subjects or institutions, accountable for their actions, that make decisions under conditions of apparent uncertainty. Some apparent uncertainties, however, can be measured or quantified probabilistically and are, therefore, more precisely called risks. Situations of risk in human society can thus be managed. Relying on probability calculation, which emerged during the 17th and the 18th centuries but became truly prevalent only in the 20th century, risk became a theoretical focus designed to bolster a scientific, mathematically-based approach toward uncertainty. Insurance companies led in demanding and developing a concretely applicable concept of risk, since calculating the probability of premature death or material hazards related to either humans or material things, such as ships, buildings, and their contents, was essential for their core business and success. However, by the middle of the 20th century-An Age of Extremes, as it has been aptly characterized-nuclear weapons and their use in Japan and subsequent further development early in the Cold War dramatically increased awareness of potential hazards derived from these and other achievements in science, engineering and warfare. Therefore, the Age of Extremes stimulated more and new research on risk. With new tools, such as operations research, digital computers, systems analysis, and systems management, all of which had been introduced in the military and aerospace sectors in the course of World War II, the intellectual resources necessary to estimate the extent and the probability of failures and accidents in nuclear warfare and beyond increased dramatically. Out of the Cold War effort to create the Peaceful Atom, nuclear-power reactor safety studies became landmarks in risk analysis, and this type of study later achieved relevance in many more areas. This chapter seeks to explore the evolution of risk research and risk management in its social and political contexts in order to understand the underlying concepts of risk and safety as social constructs. The historical survey focuses mainly on the last two centuries. It starts with the advent of the modern era when with spreading bourgeois virtues it became common to plan for the future but not to bet on it. This involved an increasing need to calculate future uncertainties in order to manage them as risks. The study stops at the end of the Cold War, when the collapse of the socialist bloc settled the risky confrontation between the two opposing societal camps. By no means did the termination of the Cold War end the story about risk. On the contrary, as late modern societies accumulate more and more knowledge they simultaneously increase the amount of ignorance that is the cause of newly emerging risk. How these risks are tackled is the topic of the other chapters in this book. This historical survey does not aim at completeness but rather at understanding the major transformations in the evolution of risk. Thus, not all areas in the history of risk are covered here; for instance, the important field of financial risk is treated by other Chap. 4.