Probability Based Heuristic for Predictive Business Process Monitoring

Kristof Böhmer, Stefanie Rinderle-Ma

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/KonferenzbandKonferenzbeitragBegutachtung

9 Zitate (Scopus)

Abstract

Predictive business process monitoring concerns the unfolding of ongoing process instance executions. Recent work in this area frequently applies “blackbox” like methods which, despite delivering high quality prediction results, fail to implement a transparent and understandable prediction generation process, likely, limiting the trust users put into the results. This work tackles this limitation by basing prediction and the related prediction models on well known probability based histogram like approaches. Those enable to quickly grasp, and potentially visualise the prediction results, various alternative futures, and the overall prediction process. Furthermore, the proposed heuristic prediction approach outperforms state-of-the-art approaches with respect to prediction accuracy. This conclusion is drawn based on a publicly available prototypical implementation, real life logs from multiple sources and domains, along with a comparison with multiple alternative approaches.

OriginalspracheEnglisch
TitelOn the Move to Meaningful Internet Systems. OTM 2018 Conferences - Confederated International Conferences
UntertitelCoopIS, C and TC, and ODBASE 2018, Proceedings
Redakteure/-innenHenderik A. Proper, Robert Meersman, Claudio Agostino Ardagna, Hervé Panetto, Christophe Debruyne, Dumitru Roman
Herausgeber (Verlag)Springer Verlag
Seiten78-96
Seitenumfang19
ISBN (Print)9783030026097
DOIs
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2018
Extern publiziertJa
VeranstaltungConfederated International Conferences: Cooperative Information Systems, CoopIS 2018, Ontologies, Databases, and Applications of Semantics, ODBASE 2018, and Cloud and Trusted Computing, C and TC, held as part of OTM 2018 - Valletta, Malta
Dauer: 22 Okt. 201826 Okt. 2018

Publikationsreihe

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Band11229 LNCS
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (elektronisch)1611-3349

Konferenz

KonferenzConfederated International Conferences: Cooperative Information Systems, CoopIS 2018, Ontologies, Databases, and Applications of Semantics, ODBASE 2018, and Cloud and Trusted Computing, C and TC, held as part of OTM 2018
Land/GebietMalta
OrtValletta
Zeitraum22/10/1826/10/18

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