Natural criteria for comparison of pedestrian flow forecasting models

Models of human behaviour, such as pedestrian flows, are beneficial for safe and efficient operation of mobile robots. We present a new methodology for benchmarking of pedestrian flow models based on the afforded safety of robot navigation in human-populated environments. While previous evaluations of pedestrian flow models focused on their predictive capabilities, we assess their ability to support safe path planning and scheduling. Using real-world datasets gathered continuously over several weeks, we benchmark state-of-the-art pedestrian flow models, including both time-averaged and time-sensitive models. In the evaluation, we use the learned models to plan robot trajectories and then observe the number of times when the robot gets too close to humans, using a predefined social distance threshold. The experiments show that while traditional evaluation criteria based on model fidelity differ only marginally, the introduced criteria vary significantly depending on the model used, providing a natural interpretation of the expected safety of the system. For the time-averaged flow models, the number of encounters increases linearly with the percentage operating time of the robot, as might be reasonably expected. By contrast, for the time-sensitive models, the number of encounters grows sublinearly with the percentage operating time, by planning to avoid congested areas and times.