Musculoskeletal spine modeling in large patient cohorts: how morphological individualization affects lumbar load estimation

Introduction: Achieving an adequate level of detail is a crucial part of any modeling process. Thus, oversimplification of complex systems can lead to overestimation, underestimation, and general bias of effects, while elaborate models run the risk of losing validity due to the uncontrolled interaction of multiple influencing factors and error propagation. Methods: We used a validated pipeline for the automated generation of multi-body models of the trunk to create 279 models based on CT data from 93 patients to investigate how different degrees of individualization affect the observed effects of different morphological characteristics on lumbar loads. Specifically, individual parameters related to spinal morphology (thoracic kyphosis (TK), lumbar lordosis (LL), and torso height (TH)), as well as torso weight (TW) and distribution, were fully or partly considered in the respective models according to their degree of individualization, and the effect strengths of these parameters on spinal loading were compared between semi- and highly individualized models. T-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (T-SNE) analysis was performed for overarching pattern recognition and multiple regression analyses to evaluate changes in occurring effects and significance. Results: We were able to identify significant effects (p < 0.05) of various morphological parameters on lumbar loads in models with different degrees of individualization. Torso weight and lumbar lordosis showed the strongest effects on compression (β ≈ 0.9) and anterior–posterior shear forces (β ≈ 0.7), respectively. We could further show that the effect strength of individual parameters tended to decrease if more individual characteristics were included in the models. Discussion: The induced variability due to model individualization could only partly be explained by simple morphological parameters. Our study shows that model simplification can lead to an emphasis on individual effects, which needs to be critically assessed with regard to in vivo complexity. At the same time, we demonstrated that individualized models representing a population-based cohort are still able to identify relevant influences on spinal loading while considering a variety of influencing factors and their interactions.