Managing Energy Security: The Analysis of Interfuel Substitution and International Energy Trade

Over the past two decades, global energy markets KEY MESSAGES have undergone major shocks and dramatic transformations in demand and supply. The “Shale Revolution” in the US brought new and vast supply possibilities for natural gas and oil, and economic growth in China greatly increased demand for energy. A decade ago, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report on the future of natural gas envisioned an increasingly prominent role for natural gas in global and individual countries’ energy mix as a result of the climate change agenda (Birol et al. 2011). However, reliance on natural gas has put many countries into a vulnerable position because Russia, the top producer and exporter of fossil energy, had severe sanctions imposed on energy supplies after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war.