Integration von waldentwicklungsdynamik, forstökonomie und Entscheidungsverhalten in forstbetrieben zur beurteilung der gefährdung der Deutschen Forstwirstchaft durch den klimawandel

The "German Forest Sector under Global Change" study integrated forest succession, growth and yield projections, decision-making in forest management, and forest economics in a modelling framework of coupled simulation models. National forest inventory and regional forest soil data were linked with interpolated climate data to obtain comparable and consistent input data for the simulation models. Based on a stratification of the input data, a forest estate model representing the most important forest types of German forests was developed. The forest stand simulator SILVA and the forest scenario model ActioSilva were linked to the forest estate model to project stand growth under different management strategies 30 years into the future, using the current climate and a climate change scenario for the second half of the 21^st century. The process-based forest model 40 was applied to investigate changes in forest productivity and the forest product market model FPMM calculated implications of the changes in forest growth for the timber market and the wood industry. This paper describes the conceptual approach for the integrated assessment, presents key results and discuss the achievements and limitations of the study. The results indicate that impacts of climate change in Germany will be site and species-specific. Negative growth changes are likely to occur on sites where drought stress increases under climate change. Where precipitation is not the limiting growth factor, however, forest productivity may also increase. Different assessment methods produced sometimes contrasting results, which points to the need for further testing and improvement of the applied methodology. The comparison of two climate change scenarios with different precipitation trends shows that the projected impacts of climate change on the German forest sector are very sensitive to the amount and annual distribution of precipitation in the future climate. According to the forest product market model, potential timber production in Germany increased in the baseline projection under current climate, Compared to this baseline, climate change resulted in a further increase of timber production by 5% in the wet climate change scenario and a decrease of 9% in the dry scenario. We conclude that climate change constitutes a manageable risk to the German forest sector. However, especially under unfavourable site conditions significant negative ecological and socio-economic impacts are possible. The paper concludes with an outlook on further research needs.