Frost matters: Incorporating late-spring frost into a dynamic vegetation model regulates regional productivity dynamics in European beech forests

Late-spring frost (LSF) is a critical factor influencing the functioning of temperate forest ecosystems. Frost damage in the form of canopy defoliation impedes the ability of trees to effectively photosynthesize, thereby reducing tree productivity. In recent decades, LSF frequency has increased across Europe, likely intensified by the effects of climate change. With increasing warming, many deciduous tree species have shifted towards earlier budburst and leaf development. The earlier start of the growing season not only facilitates forest productivity but also lengthens the period during which trees are most susceptible to LSF. Moreover, recent forest transformation efforts in Europe intended to increase forest resilience to climate change have focused on increasing the share of deciduous species in forests. To assess the ability of forests to remain productive under climate change, dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) have proven to be useful tools. Currently, however, most state-of-The-Art DVMs do not model processes related to LSF and the associated impacts. Here, we present a novel LSF module for integration with the dynamic vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS). This new model implementation, termed LPJ-GUESS-FROST, provides the ability to directly attribute simulated impacts on forest productivity dynamics to LSF. We use the example of European beech, one of the dominant deciduous species in central Europe, to demonstrate the functioning of our novel LSF module. Using a network of tree-ring observations from past frost events, we show that LPJ-GUESS-FROST can reproduce productivity reductions caused by LSF. Further, to exemplify the effects of including LSF dynamics in DVMs, we run LPJ-GUESS-FROST for a study region in southern Germany for which high-resolution climate observations are available. Here, we show that modeled LSF plays a substantial role in regulating regional net primary production (NPP) and biomass dynamics, emphasizing the need for LSF to be more widely accounted for in DVMs.