TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluation of sector-coupled energy systems using different foresight horizons
AU - Lambert, Jerry
AU - Hanel, Andreas
AU - Fendt, Sebastian
AU - Spliethoff, Hartmut
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023/9
Y1 - 2023/9
N2 - Energy system models are increasingly being used in politics, industry and science. At the same time, model complexity continues to increase. Different possibilities of computing time reduction are in use, for example rolling horizons and incremental optimisation with reduced foresight. However, the combination of using strongly sector-coupled models with different foresight variants, in particular, has not been investigated thoroughly yet. This study aims to evaluate different model foresights by using a mathematical model of the German energy system, which includes electricity and heat supply as well as the supply of basic chemicals and mobility. Three scenarios of this model are used to evaluate the influences of changing foresights. The considered foresight variants are perfect foresight, myopia incremental, and myopia with foresight. Carbon budget models are shown to be more suitable than the price drop and CO2 price variants with the aim to minimise deviations from the least-cost energy system transformation. Moreover, this study demonstrates the importance of the chosen model foresight. If the goal of the optimisation is to simulate unforeseen events or shocks, the foresight of the model should be chosen to have a rather small value to depict a realistic reaction of the model. If the goal is rather to simulate long-lasting consequences of decisions taken at the beginning of the simulation, the foresight horizons should be chosen to be rather long while also considering the computational costs that scale with increasing foresight.
AB - Energy system models are increasingly being used in politics, industry and science. At the same time, model complexity continues to increase. Different possibilities of computing time reduction are in use, for example rolling horizons and incremental optimisation with reduced foresight. However, the combination of using strongly sector-coupled models with different foresight variants, in particular, has not been investigated thoroughly yet. This study aims to evaluate different model foresights by using a mathematical model of the German energy system, which includes electricity and heat supply as well as the supply of basic chemicals and mobility. Three scenarios of this model are used to evaluate the influences of changing foresights. The considered foresight variants are perfect foresight, myopia incremental, and myopia with foresight. Carbon budget models are shown to be more suitable than the price drop and CO2 price variants with the aim to minimise deviations from the least-cost energy system transformation. Moreover, this study demonstrates the importance of the chosen model foresight. If the goal of the optimisation is to simulate unforeseen events or shocks, the foresight of the model should be chosen to have a rather small value to depict a realistic reaction of the model. If the goal is rather to simulate long-lasting consequences of decisions taken at the beginning of the simulation, the foresight horizons should be chosen to be rather long while also considering the computational costs that scale with increasing foresight.
KW - Energy system optimisation
KW - Foresight horizons
KW - Linear programming
KW - Myopia
KW - Sector coupling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85165581918&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113562
DO - 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113562
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85165581918
SN - 1364-0321
VL - 184
JO - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
JF - Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
M1 - 113562
ER -