Engineering risk assessment

Engineers must make decisions or advise decisions makers in problems involving uncertainty and risk. Engineering risk assessments support engineers and scientists in this task, by providing a structured approach to understanding and modeling the risks. Such risk assessments are based on a quantitative engineering modeling approach, which differs from the actuarial approach to risk modeling. Because of limited data, engineers must utilize all available information from multiple sources, including physical and logical models, observed data and expert knowledge. This information is uncertain and often contradicting. The methods presented in this chapter help engineers to consistently combine this information to come up with best estimates of risk and optimal decision support. They also help the engineer in understanding the limitations and sensitivity of risk estimates and facilitate the communication and comparison of risks. Finally, they enable the definition of clear criteria for assessing the acceptability and optimality of engineering solutions to reducing risk.