Decarbonization potential and economic viability of chemical recycling for China's transformation towards carbon neutrality: Case analysis of global warming potential and costs of municipal solid waste gasification for methanol production

The waste and chemical sectors contribute significantly to China's carbon footprint. Linking these sectors via chemical recycling could contribute to achieving China's goal to decarbonize via defossilization. This study comparatively evaluates the decarbonization and economic potential of gasification-based chemical recycling of municipal solid waste against conventional waste treatment (i.e., landfilling and waste incineration). Results from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) indicate that not only does waste gasification exhibit higher global warming reduction potential than conventional treatment (e.g., -70 kg CO2-eq. per tonne of waste compared to currently expanding waste incineration), but this potential will also increase as China's energy mix becomes increasingly renewable (i.e., -320 kg CO2-eq). However, this decarbonization potential will also be associated with higher plant investments (+50 %) and a lower net present value (-20 %). Insights from this study enrich the Chinese discourse on sustainable waste management practices across scientific, regulatory, and industrial dimensions.