COVID-19 impact on agriculture and food security in Africa. A systematic review and meta-analysis

While agriculture is the life-wire for many African economies, the sector has been exposed to multiple shocks, leading to food insecurity concerns. COVID-19′s seemingly perennial nature suggests the need for African agrarian systems to explore pathways to achieve food security in the midst of pandemics. However, existing knowledge on the effects of COVID-19 agriculture and food security remains fragmented. This article reviews preliminary documented and projected effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agriculture and food security in Africa, combining an inter-rater reliability (IRR) – based systematic review with meta-analysis on 74 rigorously selected published items, including 157 case studies. Our analysis hitches on the sustainable livelihoods framework and a novel systematic review and meta-analysis protocol (Tadesse, 2020). An IRR score of 0.93 suggests overwhelming convergence of contemporary COVID-19 scholarship on the negative economic effects of COVID-19 on agricultural supply and demand across Africa, which, in combination with other factors, culminates in increasing, multi-dimensional food insecurity, hitting hard on the poor and vulnerable. The meta-analysis suggests that agriculture is more exposed to COVID-19 effects than other (non-agricultural) sectors, with an overall pooled association effect size (RR) for the COVID-19 pandemic and farming occupation of 1.25 (95% CI, 0.72–0.96; P = 0.01), and significant heterogeneity between studies (Ι² = 100%, P < 0.00). Future reviews and meta analyses increasingly focusing on methodological details are recommended, to provide insights on COVID-19 effects on African agriculture and food security. Policy implications of prolonged COVID-19 effects on agriculture and food security in Africa are then contemplated.