Combining the analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy expert systems, and the exponential risk priority number for the holistic evaluation of innovation projects in manufacturing

Manufacturing companies operate in a complex environment and need efficient manufacturing processes to remain competitive. Therefore, evaluation methods are essential for decision makers when selecting manufacturing innovation projects (MIPs). However, most approaches are not suitable for strategic use and do not consider all relevant evaluation dimensions. To address this issue, this work presents an approach to evaluate and select MIPs holistically, considering potential, effort, and risk. The approach enables the analysis of the strategic impact of an MIP using a fuzzy expert system, and further evaluates the implementation effort and risk using a combination of the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Exponential Risk Priority Number. The approach was developed using the results of a systematic literature review and expert-based methods. Finally, the approach was validated in an industrial case study and enabled a transparent evaluation of the strategic potential, effort, and risk of two MIPs, leading to informed project selection.