TY - JOUR
T1 - Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land-use decisions
T2 - Does it reduce tropical deforestation?
AU - Knoke, Thomas
AU - Paul, Carola
AU - Rammig, Anja
AU - Gosling, Elizabeth
AU - Hildebrandt, Patrick
AU - Härtl, Fabian
AU - Peters, Thorsten
AU - Richter, Michael
AU - Diertl, Karl Heinz
AU - Castro, Luz Maria
AU - Calvas, Baltazar
AU - Ochoa, Santiago
AU - Valle-Carrión, Liz Anabelle
AU - Hamer, Ute
AU - Tischer, Alexander
AU - Potthast, Karin
AU - Windhorst, David
AU - Homeier, Jürgen
AU - Wilcke, Wolfgang
AU - Velescu, Andre
AU - Gerique, Andres
AU - Pohle, Perdita
AU - Adams, Julia
AU - Breuer, Lutz
AU - Mosandl, Reinhard
AU - Beck, Erwin
AU - Weber, Michael
AU - Stimm, Bernd
AU - Silva, Brenner
AU - Verburg, Peter H.
AU - Bendix, Jörg
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
PY - 2020/4/1
Y1 - 2020/4/1
N2 - Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.
AB - Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.
KW - Ecuador
KW - biodiversity
KW - ecosystem services
KW - land allocation
KW - landscape restoration
KW - robust optimization
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85079369218&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/gcb.15003
DO - 10.1111/gcb.15003
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85079369218
SN - 1354-1013
VL - 26
SP - 2403
EP - 2420
JO - Global Change Biology
JF - Global Change Biology
IS - 4
ER -